Model Assumptions
Avg Food Check
$85 / guest
Bev Attach Rate
65% · $20 avg
Blended Check
$98 / guest
Operating Days
5 nights · 22/mo
Occupancy · Yr 2/3
85% / 90%
Beverage License
Beer & Wine · 22–23% cost
Revenue Assumptions & Sources
| Assumption |
Value Used |
Basis |
| Seat count |
45 (midpoint of 40–50) |
Final count determined by space. Concept holds cleanly to 50; above 50 strains intimacy and service model. |
| Turn rate |
1.5× blended |
Industry standard for full-service dinner-only restaurants. Toast Q3 2024 Restaurant Trends Report. Conservative — does not model 2.0× peak turns on busy nights. |
| Food avg check |
$85 Year 1 · grows to $94 by Year 5 |
Anchor dishes $18–50, chef's selections $28–40, small plates $11–18, dessert $12–14. Blended avg modeled conservatively below menu ceiling. |
| Beverage attach rate |
65% Year 1 · grows to 76% by Year 5 |
National Restaurant Association 2024: 7 in 10 consumers who drink beer, wine or cocktails say availability influences restaurant choice. 65% conservative for beer & wine only (no spirits). |
| Beverage avg spend |
$20 Year 1 · grows to $24 by Year 5 |
Beer & wine by the glass $12–18 typical range. $20 avg assumes 1.5 drinks per ordering guest. Grows as wine program matures and higher-margin bottles move. |
| Blended check |
$98 Year 1 |
$85 food + (65% × $20 bev) = $98 per seat. Used as basis for all revenue calculations. |
| Operating days |
5 nights/week · 22 days/month |
Wednesday through Sunday dinner only. 22 operating days accounts for holidays and scheduled closures. Does not model private events or additional revenue streams. |
| Occupancy |
75% Yr 1 · 85% Yr 2 · 90% Yr 3 · 93% Yr 4 · 95% Yr 5 |
75% Year 1 is conservative for a new concept with no existing local audience. Pre-opening pop-up series and email list designed to reduce this risk. Industry benchmark for stabilized full-service restaurant: 80–90%. |
Cost Assumptions & Sources
| Assumption |
Value Used |
Basis |
| Food cost % |
30% Year 1 · tightens to 27% by Year 5 |
Industry standard for full-service restaurants: 28–35%. 30% Year 1 accounts for opening waste and recipe refinement. Tightens with volume and purchasing relationships. |
| Beverage cost % |
23% Year 1 · tightens to 20% by Year 5 |
Beer & wine only programs typically run 20–25% vs 18–24% for full bar. 23% conservative for Year 1. Improves as Julia Donovan (GM, wine program) builds distributor relationships and by-the-glass margins tighten. |
| Labor — FOH |
7 staff · $7.25/hr base + tips · 30 hrs/wk avg |
FOH paid Idaho minimum wage ($7.25/hr) plus tips — all-in take-home $22–28/hr on volume nights. Tips stay with FOH, distributed among servers and support staff by hours worked. BOH paid competitive hourly rates; tip sharing not required. Owners and managers excluded per FLSA. |
| Labor — BOH |
Operational Flexibility Reserve $55k · 2 line cooks $21/hr · prep/dish $16/hr · 30 hrs/wk |
FOH tip pool structure frees budget for an Operational Flexibility Reserve — allocated to the highest-priority labor or operational need as the business requires. In Year 1 this most likely funds a sous chef or senior line cook; in later years it may fund a floor manager, additional prep, or equipment. Keeps the model responsive without returning to investors. |
| Owner compensation |
Chef $85,000 · GM $65,000 |
Treated as P&L operating expense — not distributions. Investor capital is not at risk from owner salaries. Modest relative to market rate for chef-owners; reflects reinvestment priority in Years 1–2. |
| Payroll tax & benefits |
12% of total labor |
FICA (7.65%) + Idaho unemployment insurance (~1%) + workers comp + basic benefits. Conservative estimate; actual may be lower in early years. |
| Rent |
$5,000/month · $60,000/year |
Downtown Boise commercial restaurant space: $25–40/sq ft annually. At 2,000–2,500 sq ft total footprint, $5,000/month ($30/sq ft) is midpoint. Second-generation space reduces buildout cost and may carry NNN terms. |
| Build-out |
$275,000 hard cap · amortized 60 months |
Second-generation space with existing hood, grease trap, and plumbing saves $80,000–120,000 vs ground-up build. $275k covers FF&E, millwork, lighting, smallwares, and contingency. Amortized over 5-year lease term. |
| Prime cost target |
64.4% Year 1 · improves to 57.5% Year 5 |
Industry benchmark for full-service restaurants: 55–65%. Year 1 at 64.4% is within range for a new concept. Tightens as volume grows, purchasing matures, and labor efficiency improves. |
Key Risks & Mitigations
| Risk |
Mitigation |
| Lower than projected occupancy Year 1 |
Break-even requires only 37 covers/night (82% of modeled Year 1 volume). Pre-opening pop-up series builds audience and validates pricing before doors open. |
| Higher than projected food cost |
Focused menu with anchor dishes limits prep complexity and waste. Weekly food cost tracking from day one. Idaho sourcing relationships reduce volatility. |
| Labor market tightness in Boise |
Above-market hourly rates budgeted. Lean team structure reduces dependency on volume hiring. GM (Julia Donovan) relocating with concept — no key FOH hire risk at open. |
| Liquor license unavailability |
Model built entirely on beer & wine license — no spirits revenue assumed. Full liquor license, if secured, represents unmodeled upside only. |
| Rent escalation |
Target 5-year lease with two 5-year options and fixed escalation cap (3% annually max). Legal review by principal's family counsel prior to execution. |
Data Sources
| National Restaurant Association — 2024 State of the Restaurant Industry Report |
| Toast Q3 2024 Restaurant Trends Report — reservation behavior, check averages, tip rates |
| Idaho Restaurant Association — Boise market data and hospitality industry benchmarks |
| U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Idaho hospitality wage data 2024 |
| LoopNet / CoStar — Downtown Boise commercial restaurant lease rate comparables |
| Operator experience — 17 years full-service hospitality, GM-level P&L management |
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Revenue · Year 1
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Revenue45 seats · 1.5× · 75% occ · $85 |
$94,556 |
$1,134,675 |
87% |
| Beverage Revenue65% attach · $20 avg |
$14,256 |
$171,068 |
13% |
| Total Revenue |
$109,148 |
$1,305,743 |
100% |
Cost of Goods · Year 1
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Cost30% of food rev |
$28,367 |
$340,403 |
26% |
| Beverage Cost23% of bev rev · beer & wine |
$3,279 |
$39,346 |
3.0% |
| Total COGS |
$31,646 |
$379,749 |
29.1% |
Labor · Year 1
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Owner — Chef (Devin Ihnat) |
$7,083 |
$85,000 |
6.5% |
| Owner — GM (Julia Donovan) |
$5,417 |
$65,000 |
5.0% |
| FOH Staff7 staff · $7.25/hr base + tips · 30 hrs/wk |
$6,598 |
$79,170 |
6.1% |
| Operational Flexibility Reservelabor, staffing, or operational need · allocated as business requires |
$4,583 |
$55,000 |
4.2% |
| Line Cooks2 cooks · $21/hr · 30 hrs/wk |
$5,460 |
$65,520 |
5.0% |
| Prep / Dishwasher$16/hr · 30 hrs/wk |
$2,080 |
$24,960 |
1.9% |
| Payroll Tax & Benefits12% of total labor |
$3,747 |
$44,958 |
3.4% |
| Total Labor |
$34,967 |
$419,608 |
32.1% |
Prime Cost · Year 1
| Prime Cost (COGS + Labor) |
$66,613 |
$799,357 |
61.2% |
Operating Expenses · Year 1
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Rent |
$5,000 |
$60,000 |
4.6% |
| Build-Out Amortization$275k over 60 months |
$4,583 |
$55,000 |
4.2% |
| Utilitiesgas, electric, water |
$2,800 |
$33,600 |
2.6% |
| InsuranceGL, property, liquor liability |
$1,200 |
$14,400 |
1.1% |
| POS & TechToast, reservations, accounting |
$600 |
$7,200 |
0.6% |
| Marketing & PR |
$1,000 |
$12,000 |
0.9% |
| Repairs & Maintenance |
$500 |
$6,000 |
0.5% |
| Supplies & Smallwares |
$800 |
$9,600 |
0.7% |
| Linen & Uniforms |
$400 |
$4,800 |
0.4% |
| Accounting & Legal |
$700 |
$8,400 |
0.6% |
| Miscellaneous |
$500 |
$6,000 |
0.5% |
| Total Operating Expenses |
$18,083 |
$217,000 |
16.6% |
Net Operating Income · Year 1
| Total Revenue |
$109,148 |
$1,305,743 |
100% |
| Total Expenses |
($88,911) |
($1,066,952) |
81.7% |
| Net Operating Income |
$19,902 |
$238,791 |
18.3% |
Revenue · Year 2
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Revenue85% occupancy · slight check growth to $88 |
$111,012 |
$1,332,144 |
87% |
| Beverage Revenue70% attach · $22 avg |
$18,172 |
$218,064 |
13% |
| Total Revenue |
$129,184 |
$1,550,208 |
100% |
Cost of Goods · Year 2
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Cost29% — tighter with volume |
$32,193 |
$386,322 |
24.9% |
| Beverage Cost22% · beer & wine |
$3,998 |
$47,974 |
3.1% |
| Total COGS |
$36,191 |
$434,296 |
28.0% |
Labor · Year 2
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Owner — Chef (Devin Ihnat) |
$7,500 |
$90,000 |
5.8% |
| Owner — GM (Julia Donovan) |
$5,833 |
$70,000 |
4.5% |
| FOH Staff7 staff · $7.25/hr base + tips |
$6,598 |
$79,170 |
5.1% |
| Operational Flexibility Reservescales with business need · labor, staffing, or ops |
$4,833 |
$58,000 |
3.7% |
| Line Cooks2 cooks · $22/hr · 30 hrs/wk |
$5,720 |
$68,640 |
4.4% |
| Prep / Dishwasher$16.50/hr · 30 hrs/wk |
$2,145 |
$25,740 |
1.7% |
| Payroll Tax & Benefits |
$3,921 |
$47,058 |
3.0% |
| Total Labor |
$36,550 |
$438,608 |
28.3% |
Prime Cost · Year 2
| Prime Cost (COGS + Labor) |
$72,741 |
$872,904 |
56.3% |
Net Operating Income · Year 2
| Total Revenue |
$129,184 |
$1,550,208 |
100% |
| Total ExpensesOpEx holds flat at $217k |
($89,550) |
($1,089,904) |
70.3% |
| Net Operating Income |
$38,470 |
$460,304 |
29.7% |
Revenue · Year 3
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Revenue90% occupancy · $90 avg check |
$120,285 |
$1,443,420 |
87% |
| Beverage Revenue72% attach · $22 avg |
$19,407 |
$232,884 |
13% |
| Total Revenue |
$139,692 |
$1,676,304 |
100% |
Net Operating Income · Year 3
| Total Revenue |
$139,692 |
$1,676,304 |
100% |
| COGS28% food · 22% bev · blended ~27.2% |
($37,949) |
($455,392) |
27.2% |
| Laborowner raises · flexibility reserve $61k · line cooks $23/hr |
($38,122) |
($457,464) |
27.3% |
| Operating Expensesslight inflation increase |
($18,500) |
($222,000) |
13.2% |
| Net Operating Income |
$38,743 |
$464,912 |
27.7% |
Revenue · Year 4
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Revenue93% occupancy · $92 avg check |
$124,295 |
$1,491,540 |
83.7% |
| Beverage Revenue74% attach · $23 avg |
$24,167 |
$290,000 |
16.3% |
| Total Revenue |
$148,462 |
$1,781,540 |
100% |
Net Operating Income · Year 4
| Total Revenue |
$148,462 |
$1,781,540 |
100% |
| COGS27% food · 21% bev |
($38,827) |
($465,925) |
26.2% |
| Laborchef $95k · GM $75k · flex reserve $64k · lines $23/hr · tip pool FOH |
($38,402) |
($460,824) |
25.9% |
| Operating Expenses |
($18,870) |
($226,440) |
12.7% |
| Net Operating Income |
$52,363 |
$628,351 |
35.3% |
Investor & Owner Distributions · Year 4
| Line Item |
Annual |
Note |
|
| NOI |
$628,351 |
— |
|
| Preferred Return to Investors |
($80,000) |
8% on $1M · paid first |
|
| Remaining for Split |
$548,351 |
— |
|
| 70/30 Split · until capital returned$264,203 remaining |
Inv: $264,203 · Own: $113,230 |
Capital fully returned mid-Year 4 |
|
| 35/65 Split · post-payback pool |
Inv: $59,822 · Own: $111,096 |
Remaining $170,918 at new split |
|
| Investor Total · Year 4 |
$404,025 |
preferred + payback + post-payback |
|
| Owner Total · Year 4 |
$224,326 |
above owner salaries of $170k |
|
Revenue · Year 5
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
% Revenue |
| Food Revenue95% occupancy · $94 avg check |
$130,330 |
$1,563,960 |
83.5% |
| Beverage Revenue76% attach · $24 avg |
$25,764 |
$309,172 |
16.5% |
| Total Revenue |
$156,094 |
$1,873,132 |
100% |
Net Operating Income · Year 5
| Total Revenue |
$156,094 |
$1,873,132 |
100% |
| COGS27% food · 20% bev |
($40,590) |
($487,083) |
26.0% |
| Laborchef $100k · GM $80k · flex reserve $67k · lines $24/hr · tip pool FOH |
($39,979) |
($479,752) |
25.6% |
| Operating Expenses |
($19,247) |
($230,969) |
12.3% |
| Net Operating Income |
$56,277 |
$675,328 |
36.1% |
Investor & Owner Distributions · Year 5 · Full Post-Payback
| Line Item |
Annual |
Note |
|
| NOI |
$675,328 |
— |
|
| 35/65 Split · full year post-payback |
— |
Capital fully returned · split flipped |
|
| Investor Total · Year 5 |
$236,365 |
35% of NOI |
|
| Owner Total · Year 5 |
$438,963 |
65% of NOI · above $180k salaries |
|
Upside Scenario — Private Dining & Buyouts
| Line Item |
Monthly |
Annual |
Net Contribution |
| Private Dining · Year 11 buyout/mo · $3,500 avg minimum spend |
$3,500 |
$42,000 |
$25,200 |
| Private Dining · Year 22 buyouts/mo · $3,500 avg |
$7,000 |
$84,000 |
$50,400 |
| Private Dining · Year 33 buyouts/mo · $3,750 avg |
$11,250 |
$135,000 |
$81,000 |
| Private Dining · Year 43 buyouts/mo · $4,000 avg |
$12,000 |
$144,000 |
$86,400 |
| Private Dining · Year 54 buyouts/mo · $4,000 avg |
$16,000 |
$192,000 |
$115,200 |
Upside NOI With Private Dining
| Year |
Base NOI |
Private Dining Net |
Upside NOI |
| Year 1 |
$289,386 |
+$25,200 |
$314,586 |
| Year 2 |
$460,304 |
+$50,400 |
$510,704 |
| Year 3 |
$541,448 |
+$81,000 |
$622,448 |
| Year 4 |
$628,351 |
+$86,400 |
$714,751 |
| Year 5 |
$675,328 |
+$115,200 |
$790,528 |
| 5-Year Total |
$2,594,817 |
+$358,200 |
$2,953,017 |
Private Dining Cost Structure
60%
Net contribution margin after 32% food cost and 8% incremental labor. No additional fixed cost — room and staff already in place.
Year 1 Requirement
1 buyout / mo
One Monday or Tuesday buyout per month at $3,500 minimum. Conservative starting point — grows with reputation and corporate relationships.
5-Year Upside
$358,200
Incremental net contribution above base model. Not included in base projections — represents pure upside with no additional fixed investment.
Break-Even Analysis
Monthly Fixed Costs
$56,552
Labor (fixed) + rent + amortization + insurance + tech
Break-Even Revenue
$79,932
Monthly revenue needed to cover all costs at 29.7% COGS
Break-Even Covers
~816 / mo
At $98 blended check — roughly 37 covers/night over 22 nights
Investor & Owner Return Summary · 5 Years
Investor · 5-Year Total
$1,616,186
$1M returned + $616,186 profit · ~62% total return on capital
Owner · 5-Year Total
$978,631
Above combined salaries · distributions only · Year 5 owner dist $438,963
Capital Fully Returned
Year 4
Split flips to 35/65 investors/owners post-payback
Pre / Post Split
70/30 → 35/65
Investors / Owners · flip triggers at full capital return
Quarterly Investor Distribution — Year 1
| Distribution Component |
Q1 (Jan–Mar) |
Q2 (Apr–Jun) |
Q3 (Jul–Sep) |
Q4 (Oct–Dec) |
Annual |
| NOI Available |
$28,133 |
$62,083 |
$72,457 |
$97,732 |
$266,121 |
| 8% Preferred Return — All Investors |
($20,000) |
($20,000) |
($20,000) |
($20,000) |
($80,000) |
| Investor 70% Pre-Payback Share |
$5,693 |
$29,458 |
$36,720 |
$54,412 |
$130,285 |
| Total Investor Distribution |
$25,693 |
$49,458 |
$56,720 |
$74,412 |
$210,285 |
| Owner 30% Share (retained in BRD) |
$2,440 |
$12,625 |
$15,737 |
$23,319 |
$55,836 |
Q1 distribution is modest — opening ramp at 55–65% occupancy limits early NOI. Q4 holiday peak generates the strongest quarterly distribution at $74,412. Preferred return ($80,000/yr) paid first each quarter before any split applies. Full capital payback projected Year 4.